Race 12A

saisa-spring-open-championships-tillman

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Adam Larson 13.6% 12.9% 16.7% 14.4% 13.3% 9.4% 7.4% 5.3% 4.2% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Atlee Kohl 22.1% 23.9% 19.0% 13.3% 9.3% 5.7% 3.9% 1.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Noah Zittrer 35.5% 24.8% 18.2% 11.8% 5.2% 2.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Katie Nelson 3.1% 5.0% 7.6% 7.5% 8.2% 8.9% 11.6% 11.5% 7.9% 10.0% 5.8% 6.1% 3.9% 2.0% 0.5% 0.4%
Matthew King 4.5% 4.4% 5.9% 7.8% 9.7% 10.6% 10.0% 7.9% 11.2% 9.5% 6.6% 5.7% 3.1% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Hilton Kamps 2.3% 2.5% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 7.6% 7.9% 8.2% 7.2% 9.1% 10.0% 8.0% 8.8% 5.7% 5.7% 2.0%
Brendan Smucker 3.2% 4.8% 6.0% 6.8% 6.1% 8.4% 10.6% 9.8% 8.3% 10.3% 8.5% 6.8% 4.4% 3.8% 2.0% 0.2%
Julian Larsen 0.6% 2.0% 1.8% 2.2% 2.3% 3.1% 3.6% 3.9% 6.5% 6.2% 8.1% 8.4% 9.2% 12.1% 14.6% 15.4%
Jordan Byrd 5.6% 6.2% 7.1% 9.9% 10.0% 11.8% 10.4% 10.5% 8.6% 5.1% 4.8% 4.4% 2.8% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Andrew Lam 0.8% 1.1% 2.2% 2.1% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 3.6% 4.0% 6.7% 7.7% 8.2% 11.2% 12.8% 16.4% 14.8%
Ian Hoogenboom 1.9% 1.5% 2.0% 2.2% 4.2% 5.1% 4.6% 6.0% 6.3% 6.1% 9.9% 9.2% 11.0% 11.5% 10.9% 7.6%
Nilah Miller 3.0% 5.0% 5.1% 7.5% 8.6% 9.9% 9.2% 9.8% 8.9% 7.8% 7.9% 7.2% 4.9% 2.8% 1.6% 0.8%
Kenneth Buck 1.6% 2.2% 2.0% 4.1% 6.7% 6.1% 6.7% 7.3% 10.2% 8.6% 9.9% 9.0% 9.1% 7.5% 5.6% 3.4%
Andrew Ettlemyer 0.5% 1.5% 0.9% 1.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.1% 4.6% 4.7% 6.8% 6.2% 7.3% 10.6% 13.0% 13.8% 21.7%
Polk Baggett 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 2.1% 2.5% 2.8% 3.7% 4.9% 6.6% 5.7% 7.8% 9.8% 10.2% 12.5% 14.4% 13.2%
May Proctor 0.4% 0.9% 1.3% 1.9% 1.7% 3.1% 4.2% 4.8% 4.1% 6.0% 5.9% 9.5% 10.8% 12.4% 13.1% 19.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.