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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.62+3.90vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+1.04vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia3.14+0.73vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.20+1.94vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.17-1.19vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.51-0.76vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.15+1.50vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.01-1.57vs Predicted
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9William and Mary0.95+0.04vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University-0.41+2.06vs Predicted
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11American University-1.78+3.02vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.24-3.47vs Predicted
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13Hampton University0.43-2.55vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-0.82-1.26vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute-0.17-3.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.620.1%1st Place
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3.04St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.3%1st Place
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3.73University of Virginia3.140.2%1st Place
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5.94Georgetown University2.200.1%1st Place
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3.81Old Dominion University3.170.2%1st Place
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5.24Old Dominion University2.510.1%1st Place
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8.5Christopher Newport University1.150.0%1st Place
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6.43Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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9.04William and Mary0.950.0%1st Place
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12.06Christopher Newport University-0.410.0%1st Place
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14.02American University-1.780.0%1st Place
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8.53George Washington University1.240.0%1st Place
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10.45Hampton University0.430.0%1st Place
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12.74William and Mary-0.820.0%1st Place
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11.57Webb Institute-0.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Galster | 12.0% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Markus Edegran | 26.2% | 23.2% | 16.0% | 13.4% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Stokes | 17.3% | 17.5% | 16.8% | 14.4% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Andril | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 14.4% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evan Hoffmann | 17.2% | 16.9% | 15.4% | 15.3% | 13.8% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Spracher | 7.4% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 15.4% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Buhl | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 15.0% | 14.1% | 12.7% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Edward Titcomb | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Diana Kong-Wasielewski | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 15.6% | 13.4% | 15.2% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Kira Munger | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 11.1% | 14.7% | 22.5% | 21.8% | 10.5% |
| Nicholas Pilipowskyj | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 17.3% | 61.8% |
| Alex Hitchcock | 2.3% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 14.6% | 16.4% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Ian Guagliardo | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 12.4% | 16.3% | 19.1% | 13.6% | 7.3% | 2.7% |
| Girolama Bui | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 8.1% | 13.1% | 16.4% | 31.5% | 18.1% |
| Troy Zangle | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 8.3% | 12.7% | 14.8% | 21.8% | 18.7% | 6.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.