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📊 Prediction Accuracy
75.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+2.23vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.62+3.16vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia3.14+1.02vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.17-0.03vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.20+1.32vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.01+0.93vs Predicted
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7University of Virginia1.53+1.20vs Predicted
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8William and Mary0.95+1.63vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University1.15+0.14vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.51-4.50vs Predicted
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11Hampton University0.43-0.02vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute-0.17+0.41vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.24-4.11vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University-0.41-1.18vs Predicted
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15William and Mary-0.82-1.25vs Predicted
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16American University-1.78-0.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.23St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.2%1st Place
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5.16St. Mary's College of Maryland2.620.1%1st Place
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4.02University of Virginia3.140.2%1st Place
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3.97Old Dominion University3.170.2%1st Place
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6.32Georgetown University2.200.1%1st Place
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6.93Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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8.2University of Virginia1.530.0%1st Place
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9.63William and Mary0.950.0%1st Place
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9.14Christopher Newport University1.150.0%1st Place
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5.5Old Dominion University2.510.1%1st Place
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10.98Hampton University0.430.0%1st Place
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12.41Webb Institute-0.170.0%1st Place
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8.89George Washington University1.240.0%1st Place
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12.82Christopher Newport University-0.410.0%1st Place
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13.75William and Mary-0.820.0%1st Place
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15.05American University-1.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markus Edegran | 24.3% | 22.0% | 16.3% | 13.2% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Galster | 10.4% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Stokes | 16.8% | 15.4% | 15.3% | 14.3% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evan Hoffmann | 16.9% | 16.1% | 14.0% | 14.6% | 13.0% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Andril | 5.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Titcomb | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Horter | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Diana Kong-Wasielewski | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 15.3% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Mary Buhl | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 14.5% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Spracher | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Guagliardo | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 15.4% | 17.1% | 14.5% | 6.0% | 1.8% |
| Troy Zangle | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 16.1% | 20.6% | 18.3% | 6.0% |
| Alex Hitchcock | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Kira Munger | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 17.9% | 21.1% | 20.0% | 9.8% |
| Girolama Bui | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 11.8% | 16.7% | 31.9% | 20.5% |
| Nicholas Pilipowskyj | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 7.7% | 18.5% | 61.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.