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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.20+5.19vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.51+3.47vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+0.33vs Predicted
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4University of Virginia3.14+0.03vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.62+0.27vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.17-1.99vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.15+2.19vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.01-1.26vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia1.53-0.92vs Predicted
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10Hampton University0.43+1.06vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.24-2.10vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute-0.17+0.38vs Predicted
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13William and Mary0.95-3.33vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-0.82-0.41vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University-0.41-2.01vs Predicted
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16American University-1.78-0.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.19Georgetown University2.200.1%1st Place
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5.47Old Dominion University2.510.1%1st Place
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3.33St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.2%1st Place
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4.03University of Virginia3.140.2%1st Place
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5.27St. Mary's College of Maryland2.620.1%1st Place
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4.01Old Dominion University3.170.2%1st Place
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9.19Christopher Newport University1.150.0%1st Place
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6.74Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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8.08University of Virginia1.530.0%1st Place
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11.06Hampton University0.430.0%1st Place
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8.9George Washington University1.240.0%1st Place
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12.38Webb Institute-0.170.0%1st Place
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9.67William and Mary0.950.0%1st Place
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13.59William and Mary-0.820.0%1st Place
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12.99Christopher Newport University-0.410.0%1st Place
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15.09American University-1.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Andril | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 4.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Spracher | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Markus Edegran | 24.0% | 19.0% | 16.2% | 14.0% | 11.1% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Stokes | 16.3% | 16.1% | 14.4% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Galster | 9.2% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evan Hoffmann | 16.2% | 17.6% | 15.0% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Buhl | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 14.5% | 12.6% | 8.9% | 5.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Edward Titcomb | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Horter | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ian Guagliardo | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 16.2% | 18.6% | 13.5% | 6.7% | 1.2% |
| Alex Hitchcock | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 13.3% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Troy Zangle | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 17.0% | 19.7% | 17.0% | 7.0% |
| Diana Kong-Wasielewski | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 11.0% | 13.9% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Girolama Bui | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 7.5% | 11.9% | 18.3% | 29.5% | 18.2% |
| Kira Munger | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 24.0% | 21.5% | 10.6% |
| Nicholas Pilipowskyj | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 19.7% | 62.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.