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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University2.01+2.73vs Predicted
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2University of Michigan1.64+2.60vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University1.62+1.76vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University1.48+1.17vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida1.13+1.00vs Predicted
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6Boston University0.60+1.73vs Predicted
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7The Citadel0.34+1.42vs Predicted
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8University of North Carolina-0.51+2.69vs Predicted
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9Florida Institute of Technology0.78-1.77vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles1.06-3.85vs Predicted
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11Embry-Riddle University-1.76+2.91vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.79-4.92vs Predicted
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13University of Central Florida-1.97+1.26vs Predicted
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14University of Florida-0.88-2.14vs Predicted
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15University of South Carolina-2.41+0.07vs Predicted
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16University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.19-3.45vs Predicted
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17University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.70-3.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.73North Carolina State University2.010.2%1st Place
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4.6University of Michigan1.640.1%1st Place
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4.76Jacksonville University1.620.1%1st Place
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5.17North Carolina State University1.480.1%1st Place
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6.0University of South Florida1.130.1%1st Place
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7.73Boston University0.600.0%1st Place
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8.42The Citadel0.340.0%1st Place
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10.69University of North Carolina-0.510.0%1st Place
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7.23Florida Institute of Technology0.780.0%1st Place
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6.15University of California at Los Angeles1.060.1%1st Place
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13.91Embry-Riddle University-1.760.0%1st Place
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7.08Christopher Newport University0.790.1%1st Place
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14.26University of Central Florida-1.970.0%1st Place
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11.86University of Florida-0.880.0%1st Place
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15.07University of South Carolina-2.410.0%1st Place
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12.55University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.190.0%1st Place
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13.8University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Larson | 21.5% | 17.3% | 13.7% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Braden Vogel | 13.5% | 14.6% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 13.0% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Schweda | 13.3% | 13.4% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Chase | 12.1% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Byrd | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Cabell | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Tollefson | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Francis "Mac" Humphrey | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 14.8% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Brendan Smucker | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 7.4% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Josh Rosen | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 14.9% | 16.2% | 21.3% | 15.9% |
| Grace Watlington | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikolas Pantelis | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 8.7% | 14.3% | 16.8% | 21.1% | 21.6% |
| Marco Distel | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 13.7% | 16.5% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 7.0% | 2.0% |
| Ryan Kanter | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 13.4% | 19.7% | 39.1% |
| Torin Stremlau | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 13.7% | 17.7% | 12.9% | 9.9% | 5.4% |
| Erin Winters | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 14.3% | 17.1% | 17.3% | 14.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.