← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1North Carolina State University2.01+2.72vs Predicted
-
2North Carolina State University1.48+3.00vs Predicted
-
3University of Michigan1.64+1.67vs Predicted
-
4University of South Florida1.13+2.11vs Predicted
-
5The Citadel0.34+3.27vs Predicted
-
6Jacksonville University1.62-1.16vs Predicted
-
7Christopher Newport University0.79+0.10vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Los Angeles1.06-1.82vs Predicted
-
9Boston University0.60-1.22vs Predicted
-
10Florida Institute of Technology0.78-2.99vs Predicted
-
11University of North Carolina-0.51-0.17vs Predicted
-
12University of Florida-0.88-0.19vs Predicted
-
13University of Central Florida-1.97+1.26vs Predicted
-
14Embry-Riddle University-1.76-0.06vs Predicted
-
15University of South Carolina-2.41+0.07vs Predicted
-
16University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.19-3.42vs Predicted
-
17University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.70-3.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.72North Carolina State University2.010.2%1st Place
-
5.0North Carolina State University1.480.1%1st Place
-
4.67University of Michigan1.640.1%1st Place
-
6.11University of South Florida1.130.1%1st Place
-
8.27The Citadel0.340.0%1st Place
-
4.84Jacksonville University1.620.1%1st Place
-
7.1Christopher Newport University0.790.1%1st Place
-
6.18University of California at Los Angeles1.060.1%1st Place
-
7.78Boston University0.600.0%1st Place
-
7.01Florida Institute of Technology0.780.0%1st Place
-
10.83University of North Carolina-0.510.0%1st Place
-
11.81University of Florida-0.880.0%1st Place
-
14.26University of Central Florida-1.970.0%1st Place
-
13.94Embry-Riddle University-1.760.0%1st Place
-
15.07University of South Carolina-2.410.0%1st Place
-
12.58University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.190.0%1st Place
-
13.82University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Larson | 20.7% | 18.1% | 14.3% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Chase | 12.3% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Braden Vogel | 14.0% | 13.9% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Byrd | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Tollefson | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cole Schweda | 13.0% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Marianna Shand | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Cabell | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Brendan Smucker | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Francis "Mac" Humphrey | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 15.6% | 13.3% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Marco Distel | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 17.3% | 15.2% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 1.9% |
| Nikolas Pantelis | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 13.0% | 17.7% | 21.9% | 21.1% |
| Josh Rosen | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 14.7% | 15.7% | 21.5% | 15.6% |
| Ryan Kanter | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 13.8% | 18.3% | 40.3% |
| Torin Stremlau | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 13.6% | 15.4% | 16.3% | 13.4% | 9.6% | 5.6% |
| Erin Winters | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 13.3% | 18.1% | 18.2% | 14.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.