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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University2.01+2.67vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.06+4.15vs Predicted
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3University of Michigan1.64+1.60vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University0.79+3.07vs Predicted
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5Florida Institute of Technology0.78+1.88vs Predicted
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6University of Central Florida-0.52+4.76vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida1.13-1.02vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University1.62-3.40vs Predicted
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9Boston University0.60-1.37vs Predicted
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10The Citadel0.34-1.83vs Predicted
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11North Carolina State University1.48-5.84vs Predicted
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12University of Florida-0.88-0.53vs Predicted
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13University of North Carolina-2.21+1.44vs Predicted
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14University of South Carolina-2.41+0.83vs Predicted
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15University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.70-1.69vs Predicted
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16University of North Carolina at Wilmington-2.37-1.25vs Predicted
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17Embry-Riddle University-1.76-3.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.67North Carolina State University2.010.2%1st Place
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6.15University of California at Los Angeles1.060.1%1st Place
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4.6University of Michigan1.640.1%1st Place
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7.07Christopher Newport University0.790.1%1st Place
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6.88Florida Institute of Technology0.780.1%1st Place
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10.76University of Central Florida-0.520.0%1st Place
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5.98University of South Florida1.130.1%1st Place
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4.6Jacksonville University1.620.1%1st Place
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7.63Boston University0.600.0%1st Place
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8.17The Citadel0.340.0%1st Place
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5.16North Carolina State University1.480.1%1st Place
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11.47University of Florida-0.880.0%1st Place
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14.44University of North Carolina-2.210.0%1st Place
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14.83University of South Carolina-2.410.0%1st Place
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13.31University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.700.0%1st Place
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14.75University of North Carolina at Wilmington-2.370.0%1st Place
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13.53Embry-Riddle University-1.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Larson | 20.9% | 18.1% | 14.8% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 8.1% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Braden Vogel | 13.3% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Smucker | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julian Larsen | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 15.3% | 17.5% | 14.3% | 11.4% | 5.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Jordan Byrd | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Schweda | 14.2% | 14.3% | 14.2% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Cabell | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Tollefson | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 14.0% | 12.2% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Robert Chase | 11.8% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marco Distel | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 16.5% | 17.5% | 14.9% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 1.0% |
| Runyon Tyler | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 8.4% | 13.0% | 17.5% | 22.5% | 22.2% |
| Ryan Kanter | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 14.8% | 22.1% | 30.5% |
| Erin Winters | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 14.2% | 16.0% | 18.2% | 13.6% | 9.2% |
| Joey Dunn | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 12.6% | 18.4% | 21.6% | 25.9% |
| Josh Rosen | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 16.3% | 17.0% | 14.7% | 10.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.