Race 10A

2024-azalea-bowl

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Adam Larson 20.4% 19.1% 16.9% 11.2% 9.1% 7.8% 6.1% 4.6% 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brendan Smucker 5.3% 7.5% 7.8% 6.6% 9.0% 7.3% 9.6% 9.3% 11.0% 10.4% 8.7% 4.9% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Chase 12.4% 9.9% 11.4% 13.3% 11.0% 9.9% 11.7% 6.9% 5.9% 3.9% 2.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cole Schweda 13.3% 12.1% 12.4% 11.9% 11.9% 10.2% 8.2% 8.5% 5.8% 3.7% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marianna Shand 7.5% 7.7% 8.2% 9.2% 10.2% 10.6% 9.0% 12.0% 8.3% 8.0% 4.8% 3.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Kathleen Hale 2.0% 2.5% 1.7% 3.1% 2.9% 4.7% 6.5% 7.2% 8.9% 10.4% 15.2% 14.9% 10.8% 6.3% 2.5% 0.4%
Grace Watlington 6.3% 6.3% 6.1% 7.3% 8.2% 8.9% 9.1% 8.2% 11.2% 11.0% 8.9% 6.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Braden Vogel 14.8% 13.8% 12.9% 13.1% 10.1% 10.7% 8.8% 5.4% 5.3% 2.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Andrew Tollefson 3.7% 4.0% 4.8% 5.3% 5.4% 6.4% 8.2% 9.1% 12.0% 12.6% 12.4% 9.1% 4.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
Jordan Byrd 7.8% 7.8% 9.7% 8.5% 9.8% 10.8% 10.2% 11.4% 8.5% 7.2% 5.6% 2.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Ryan Kanter 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.9% 1.2% 2.3% 3.0% 4.9% 7.9% 15.1% 19.4% 41.9%
John Cabell 4.7% 5.8% 4.9% 7.1% 7.9% 8.6% 7.1% 9.9% 10.8% 10.1% 12.2% 6.7% 2.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Josh Rosen 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.5% 1.7% 4.3% 4.6% 10.0% 16.1% 20.4% 21.1% 15.2%
Torin Stremlau 0.4% 1.3% 0.9% 1.2% 1.7% 1.3% 2.4% 2.1% 4.0% 5.7% 8.9% 16.5% 21.1% 16.7% 10.3% 5.5%
Erin Winters 0.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 1.9% 1.3% 4.0% 4.9% 10.3% 17.7% 19.2% 21.4% 14.6%
Nikolas Pantelis 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.7% 1.1% 1.1% 2.5% 5.0% 7.9% 14.6% 17.6% 24.4% 22.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.