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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University2.18+5.29vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.51+3.18vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.90+4.31vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99+3.05vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.40+0.82vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University2.12+0.73vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.35-1.40vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.93-0.80vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-0.53vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.46-4.37vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.08-1.02vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California0.64-0.97vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.69-5.08vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.70-3.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.29Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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5.18Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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7.31George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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7.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
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5.82U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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6.73Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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5.6SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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7.2Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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8.47U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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5.63St. Mary's College of Maryland2.460.1%1st Place
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9.98University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
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11.03University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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7.92Boston University1.690.1%1st Place
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10.79Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noyl Odom | 8.7% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 1.5% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 14.0% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Wood | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 2.3% |
| Trenton Shaw | 9.2% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Will Priebe | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 0.8% |
| Spencer Barnes | 11.3% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| J.J. Smith | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.8% |
| Lars Osell | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 6.0% |
| Charlie Anderson | 10.4% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 14.0% | 15.7% | 16.6% |
| Morgana Manti | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 12.0% | 17.0% | 31.0% |
| Noah Robitshek | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 11.9% | 19.5% | 27.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.