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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California0.64+10.00vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.90+5.09vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.93+4.27vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.51+1.43vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.46+0.63vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.35-0.07vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University2.12-0.67vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont1.08+1.81vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99-1.88vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.69-1.92vs Predicted
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11Princeton University0.70+0.02vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.40-6.25vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-4.72vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University2.18-7.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.0University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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7.09George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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7.27Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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5.43Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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5.63St. Mary's College of Maryland2.460.1%1st Place
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5.93SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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6.33Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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9.81University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
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7.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
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8.08Boston University1.690.1%1st Place
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11.02Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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5.75U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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8.28U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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6.26Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgana Manti | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 19.5% | 29.6% |
| Tyler Wood | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.7% |
| J.J. Smith | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 2.6% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 11.4% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Charlie Anderson | 9.2% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Spencer Barnes | 10.1% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Will Priebe | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Ryan Potter | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 16.9% | 17.6% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.5% |
| Noah Robitshek | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 4.4% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 17.8% | 31.7% |
| Trenton Shaw | 10.2% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Lars Osell | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 9.9% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.