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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.51+4.30vs Predicted
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2Boston University1.69+5.75vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont1.08+6.83vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.46+1.59vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.35+0.96vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99+1.12vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.18-0.86vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.40-2.29vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.93-1.68vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.90-2.57vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University2.12-4.33vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California0.64-0.88vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.70-2.16vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-5.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.3Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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7.75Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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9.83University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
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5.59St. Mary's College of Maryland2.460.1%1st Place
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5.96SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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7.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
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6.14Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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5.71U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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7.32Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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7.43George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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6.67Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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11.12University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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10.84Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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8.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Lobaugh | 11.7% | 14.5% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 4.3% |
| Ryan Potter | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 17.1% | 16.4% |
| Charlie Anderson | 10.0% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 8.7% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 7.8% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 2.1% |
| Noyl Odom | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 0.6% |
| Trenton Shaw | 11.7% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| J.J. Smith | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 2.8% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 3.2% |
| Will Priebe | 9.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 1.8% |
| Morgana Manti | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 17.4% | 32.2% |
| Ossian Kamal | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 12.8% | 16.8% | 29.8% |
| Lars Osell | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 4.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.