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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.46+4.37vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.51+3.09vs Predicted
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3Princeton University0.70+7.80vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.40+1.67vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.93+2.29vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.18+0.45vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+1.05vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University2.12-1.49vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99-1.98vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California1.39-0.99vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.08-1.12vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.35-6.17vs Predicted
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13George Washington University0.89-2.71vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.69-6.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.37St. Mary's College of Maryland2.460.1%1st Place
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5.09Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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10.8Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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5.67U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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7.29Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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6.45Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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8.05U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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6.51Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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7.02Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
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9.01University of Southern California1.390.0%1st Place
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9.88University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
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5.83SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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10.29George Washington University0.890.0%1st Place
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7.76Boston University1.690.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Anderson | 11.7% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 14.0% | 12.5% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Ossian Kamal | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 12.2% | 15.5% | 31.9% |
| Trenton Shaw | 9.4% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| J.J. Smith | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 2.3% |
| Noyl Odom | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Lars Osell | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 5.8% |
| Will Priebe | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.6% |
| Jan Matteo Bassi | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 10.6% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 15.1% | 16.6% |
| Spencer Barnes | 10.6% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 2.7% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 17.0% | 21.3% |
| Noah Robitshek | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 3.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.