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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.46+4.36vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.40+3.38vs Predicted
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3Boston University1.69+4.90vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College2.35+1.84vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University2.12+1.64vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.93+1.28vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+1.02vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.51-2.67vs Predicted
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9George Washington University0.89+1.44vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.18-3.61vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99-4.00vs Predicted
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12Princeton University0.70-1.06vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.08-3.26vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California1.39-5.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.36St. Mary's College of Maryland2.460.1%1st Place
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5.38U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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7.9Boston University1.690.1%1st Place
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5.84SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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6.64Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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7.28Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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8.02U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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5.33Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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10.44George Washington University0.890.0%1st Place
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6.39Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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7.0Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
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10.94Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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9.74University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
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8.74University of Southern California1.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Anderson | 11.9% | 13.0% | 13.5% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Trenton Shaw | 12.9% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Noah Robitshek | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 4.4% |
| Spencer Barnes | 9.5% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Will Priebe | 7.0% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| J.J. Smith | 7.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 2.3% |
| Lars Osell | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 5.8% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 12.0% | 13.8% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 3.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 16.9% | 22.7% |
| Noyl Odom | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 15.1% | 31.7% |
| Ryan Potter | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 12.1% | 14.0% | 17.1% |
| Jan Matteo Bassi | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 7.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.