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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College2.35+4.93vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.46+3.42vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.40+2.86vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.51+1.57vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.18+1.72vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.90+1.60vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99-0.09vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+0.53vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.93-1.52vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.12-3.20vs Predicted
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11Princeton University0.70+0.23vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont1.08-1.89vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.69-4.91vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California1.48-5.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.93SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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5.42St. Mary's College of Maryland2.460.1%1st Place
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5.86U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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5.57Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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6.72Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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7.6George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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6.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
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8.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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7.48Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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6.8Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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11.23Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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10.11University of Vermont1.080.0%1st Place
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8.09Boston University1.690.1%1st Place
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8.73University of Southern California1.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Barnes | 9.7% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Charlie Anderson | 12.4% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Trenton Shaw | 11.3% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 9.9% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Noyl Odom | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 2.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 4.6% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
| Lars Osell | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 9.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 3.8% |
| Will Priebe | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.2% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 18.1% | 37.0% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 17.1% | 19.7% |
| Noah Robitshek | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 7.7% | 5.8% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 9.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.