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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy1.87+5.00vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+6.36vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.39+4.57vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.37+3.72vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California1.47+2.43vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.30+1.99vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.44+0.09vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34-3.36vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.35-4.28vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.83-0.52vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-6.38vs Predicted
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12Princeton University0.34-1.22vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.07-4.45vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.57-3.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.0U. S. Naval Academy1.870.1%1st Place
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8.36U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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7.57George Washington University1.390.1%1st Place
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7.72Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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7.43University of Southern California1.470.1%1st Place
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7.99Cornell University1.300.1%1st Place
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7.09Boston University1.440.1%1st Place
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4.64St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.2%1st Place
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4.72Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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9.48University of Vermont0.830.0%1st Place
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4.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.2%1st Place
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10.78Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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8.55Old Dominion University1.070.0%1st Place
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10.04SUNY Maritime College0.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Martin | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.5% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 3.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 4.5% |
| Luke Harris | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 3.7% |
| Pilar Cundey | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% |
| Tiare Sierra | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% |
| Nathan Jensen | 16.8% | 14.9% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jacob Zils | 14.7% | 13.8% | 13.8% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 13.7% | 14.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 15.6% | 14.3% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Jasper Waldman | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 15.9% | 28.8% |
| Milo Miller | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% |
| Marcus Adam | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 13.0% | 16.8% | 18.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.