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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy1.87+4.85vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+2.39vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.39+4.49vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.35+0.59vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.83+4.34vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.15+2.34vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California1.47-0.03vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+0.44vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College0.57+1.12vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23-5.09vs Predicted
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11Princeton University0.34-0.25vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.37-4.45vs Predicted
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13Cornell University0.85-3.92vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.44-6.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.85U. S. Naval Academy1.870.1%1st Place
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4.39St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.2%1st Place
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7.49George Washington University1.390.1%1st Place
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4.59Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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9.34University of Vermont0.830.0%1st Place
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8.34Old Dominion University1.150.0%1st Place
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6.97University of Southern California1.470.1%1st Place
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8.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.1%1st Place
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10.12SUNY Maritime College0.570.0%1st Place
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4.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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10.75Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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7.55Northeastern University1.370.1%1st Place
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9.08Cornell University0.850.0%1st Place
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7.17Boston University1.440.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Martin | 9.2% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Nathan Jensen | 17.0% | 14.0% | 14.1% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 3.6% |
| Jacob Zils | 14.7% | 14.6% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 12.3% |
| Sam Riley | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 6.4% |
| Luke Harris | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.6% |
| Reed McAllister | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.8% |
| Marcus Adam | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 14.3% | 19.4% |
| JJ Klempen | 12.8% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Jasper Waldman | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 12.0% | 14.9% | 29.2% |
| Joshua Dillon | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 3.6% |
| Maya Conway | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 13.8% | 10.0% |
| Tiare Sierra | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.