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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.90+8.68vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.22+3.03vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.83+3.34vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.54+6.72vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+0.66vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.51+1.27vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.99-1.42vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.35-0.26vs Predicted
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9Hampton University1.77+0.89vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.69-3.21vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.37+3.50vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.18-3.24vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-6.28vs Predicted
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14Drexel University1.35-2.80vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia0.26-0.24vs Predicted
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16Washington College-0.38+0.11vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-6.14vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.70-4.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.68George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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5.03Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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6.34University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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10.72Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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5.66St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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7.27Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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5.58U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.74SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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9.89Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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6.79Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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14.5Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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8.76Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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6.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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11.2Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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14.76University of Virginia0.260.0%1st Place
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16.11Washington College-0.380.0%1st Place
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10.86U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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13.42Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Wood | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Mariner Fagan | 11.8% | 14.1% | 12.9% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 8.1% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 1.7% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.2% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 11.4% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Bridget Green | 9.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 11.9% | 15.5% | 22.6% | 17.7% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Will Murray | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 2.9% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 17.3% | 20.8% | 20.3% |
| Patrick Tis | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 10.7% | 21.8% | 45.6% |
| Lars Osell | 3.0% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 1.7% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 17.8% | 13.7% | 8.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.