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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.84vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.76vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.90+6.71vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.18+4.32vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.51+2.23vs Predicted
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6Drexel University1.35+5.44vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.35+0.78vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.22-3.14vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+1.64vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-3.00vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.83-4.73vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.54-0.93vs Predicted
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13Hampton University1.77-3.14vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia0.26+0.58vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.69-8.49vs Predicted
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16Washington College-0.38+0.14vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University0.37-2.44vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.70-4.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.84St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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5.76U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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9.71George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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8.32Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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7.23Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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11.44Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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7.78SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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4.86Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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10.64U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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7.0Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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6.27University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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11.07Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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9.86Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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14.58University of Virginia0.260.0%1st Place
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6.51Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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16.14Washington College-0.380.0%1st Place
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14.56Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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13.42Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 10.8% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.7% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 2.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 14.8% | 15.4% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 0.6% |
| Will Murray | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 10.2% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 1.3% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 14.1% | 23.2% | 18.8% |
| Bridget Green | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Tis | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 6.7% | 10.8% | 18.2% | 48.5% |
| Laura Smith | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 17.0% | 21.2% | 19.3% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 14.4% | 16.4% | 14.9% | 8.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.