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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+4.90vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+5.11vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.87vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.69+2.68vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.35+2.91vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.90+3.69vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.91+2.64vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.18+0.46vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University3.22-4.08vs Predicted
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10Princeton University0.70+3.92vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.51-3.50vs Predicted
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12Hampton University1.77-1.64vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-2.31vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.83-7.94vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.37-0.35vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.21-0.92vs Predicted
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17Drexel University1.35-5.21vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia0.26-3.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.9U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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5.87St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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6.68Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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7.91SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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9.69George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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9.64Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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8.46Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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4.92Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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13.92Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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7.5Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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10.36Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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10.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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6.06University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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14.65Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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15.08Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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11.79Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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14.78University of Virginia0.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 10.4% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.4% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.0% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Noyl Odom | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Mariner Fagan | 14.3% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 16.1% | 17.0% | 14.9% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Lars Osell | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 1.4% |
| Jordan Bruce | 10.3% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 19.3% | 22.9% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 10.1% | 14.3% | 18.0% | 30.2% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 3.0% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 11.0% | 14.9% | 20.3% | 24.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.