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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.51+6.57vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.35+6.12vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.22+2.12vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.83+2.21vs Predicted
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5Hampton University1.77+5.02vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.99-0.26vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.90+2.65vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.69-1.30vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-3.31vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-2.80vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.37+3.70vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.91-2.03vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.70+0.58vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University2.18-5.61vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-4.18vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia0.26-1.04vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.21-1.93vs Predicted
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18Drexel University1.35-6.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.57Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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8.12SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
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5.12Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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6.21University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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10.02Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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5.74U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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9.65George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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6.7Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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5.69St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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7.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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14.7Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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9.97Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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13.58Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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8.39Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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10.82U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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14.96University of Virginia0.260.0%1st Place
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15.07Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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11.48Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Lobaugh | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 13.8% | 11.2% | 13.8% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 10.4% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.7% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 0.3% |
| Bridget Green | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.3% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 15.6% | 21.2% | 23.2% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 15.4% | 16.0% | 12.4% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Lars Osell | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 2.4% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 15.1% | 22.1% | 25.1% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 18.5% | 30.7% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 2.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.