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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+6.12vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.18+6.81vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.22+2.10vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.90+5.48vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.35+2.90vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.99-0.27vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-1.31vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.69-1.33vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.51-1.68vs Predicted
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10Hampton University1.77+0.33vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.83-4.62vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.91-2.08vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.70+0.60vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.37+0.46vs Predicted
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15Drexel University1.35-3.37vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-5.07vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.21-1.89vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia0.26-3.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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8.81Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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5.1Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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9.48George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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7.9SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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5.73U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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5.69St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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6.67Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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7.32Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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10.33Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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6.38University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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9.92Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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13.6Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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14.46Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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11.63Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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10.93U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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15.11Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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14.83University of Virginia0.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.8% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Mariner Fagan | 13.2% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 11.4% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.0% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Valerio Palamara | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 9.8% | 11.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 14.6% | 17.2% | 13.8% |
| Laura Smith | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 19.7% | 21.8% |
| Toby Sullivan | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 3.6% |
| Lars Osell | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 2.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 20.1% | 30.5% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 10.5% | 16.6% | 19.0% | 25.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.