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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.22+4.10vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.77vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.78vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.83+2.10vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.90+4.40vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.35+1.85vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+3.65vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.51-0.81vs Predicted
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9Hampton University1.77+0.92vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.69-3.17vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.37+3.49vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-4.86vs Predicted
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13Drexel University1.35-1.62vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute1.54-3.43vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University2.18-6.61vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia0.26-1.20vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.70-3.35vs Predicted
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18Washington College-0.38-2.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.1Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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5.77U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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5.78St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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6.1University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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9.4George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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7.85SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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10.65U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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7.19Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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9.92Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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6.83Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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14.49Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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7.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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11.38Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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10.57Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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8.39Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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14.8University of Virginia0.260.0%1st Place
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13.65Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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15.99Washington College-0.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 13.4% | 14.0% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.6% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.3% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 10.2% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% |
| Bridget Green | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 16.8% | 21.2% | 18.6% |
| Will Murray | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 2.1% |
| Everett Botwinick | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 10.8% | 17.4% | 21.6% | 20.5% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 14.7% | 18.1% | 9.8% |
| Patrick Tis | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 7.3% | 11.4% | 20.0% | 45.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.