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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+4.78vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.83+4.33vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.22+2.04vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.55vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.51+2.23vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.69+0.61vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.90+2.45vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.35-0.32vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.37+5.47vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-3.00vs Predicted
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11Hampton University1.77-0.94vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.54-0.90vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.18-4.67vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia0.26+0.50vs Predicted
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15Drexel University1.35-3.60vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.70-2.37vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-6.19vs Predicted
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18Washington College-0.38-1.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.78U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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6.33University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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5.04Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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5.55St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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7.23Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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6.61Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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9.45George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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7.68SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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14.47Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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7.0Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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10.06Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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11.1Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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8.33Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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14.5University of Virginia0.260.0%1st Place
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11.4Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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13.63Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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10.81U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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16.02Washington College-0.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 12.9% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.7% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 16.0% | 23.9% | 15.0% |
| Will Murray | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Valerio Palamara | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
| Everett Botwinick | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 1.7% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 15.2% | 20.5% | 19.1% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 5.8% | 1.8% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 14.8% | 17.0% | 10.3% |
| Lars Osell | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 1.4% |
| Patrick Tis | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 6.2% | 11.4% | 16.8% | 48.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.