← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Georgetown University3.22+4.13vs Predicted
-
2George Washington University1.90+7.88vs Predicted
-
3SUNY Maritime College2.35+5.15vs Predicted
-
4Webb Institute1.91+5.43vs Predicted
-
5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+0.74vs Predicted
-
6Hampton University1.77+4.11vs Predicted
-
7University of Pennsylvania2.83-0.76vs Predicted
-
8Cornell University2.69-1.35vs Predicted
-
9Princeton University0.70+4.73vs Predicted
-
10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+1.10vs Predicted
-
11Old Dominion University2.18-2.32vs Predicted
-
12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-4.75vs Predicted
-
13Drexel University1.35-1.54vs Predicted
-
14U. S. Naval Academy2.99-8.48vs Predicted
-
15Fordham University2.51-7.69vs Predicted
-
16Washington College0.21-0.89vs Predicted
-
17Christopher Newport University0.37-2.27vs Predicted
-
18University of Virginia0.26-3.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.13Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
-
9.88George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
-
8.15SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
-
9.43Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
-
5.74St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
-
10.11Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
-
6.24University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
-
6.65Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
-
13.73Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
-
11.1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
-
8.68Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
-
7.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
-
11.46Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
-
5.52U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
7.31Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
-
15.11Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
-
14.73Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
-
14.78University of Virginia0.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 14.1% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.5% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 10.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| Jordan Bruce | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 12.1% | 16.0% | 16.1% | 13.1% |
| Lars Osell | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 2.2% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Will Murray | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 3.3% |
| Nathan Smith | 11.4% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 21.2% | 29.1% |
| Laura Smith | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 9.9% | 14.9% | 19.0% | 24.9% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 11.0% | 15.8% | 20.3% | 24.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.