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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.88vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.91+7.88vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+8.09vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.90+5.46vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.22+0.01vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.83+0.30vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-0.10vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.51-0.65vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.18-0.50vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.35-1.83vs Predicted
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11Princeton University0.70+2.81vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.99-6.04vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.69-6.42vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.37+0.45vs Predicted
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15Hampton University1.77-4.99vs Predicted
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16Drexel University1.35-4.28vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.21-1.84vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia0.26-3.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.88St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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9.88Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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11.09U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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9.46George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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5.01Georgetown University3.220.2%1st Place
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6.3University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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6.9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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7.35Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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8.5Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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8.17SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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13.81Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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5.96U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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6.58Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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14.45Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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10.01Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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11.72Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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15.16Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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14.79University of Virginia0.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 10.6% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Lars Osell | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 4.7% | 2.4% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 16.8% | 13.7% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 15.0% | 17.5% | 14.5% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.1% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Bridget Green | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Laura Smith | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 13.9% | 19.8% | 21.2% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 7.3% | 3.1% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 19.9% | 30.9% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 14.2% | 20.8% | 24.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.