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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.91+8.78vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.83+4.40vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.51+4.53vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.18+4.44vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.22-0.05vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.99-0.37vs Predicted
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7Hampton University1.77+3.09vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+2.84vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.85+4.37vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.35-1.84vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-5.20vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.21+3.31vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.90-3.50vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23-5.83vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.69-8.37vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.70-2.16vs Predicted
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17Drexel University1.35-5.28vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia0.26-3.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.78Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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6.4University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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7.53Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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8.44Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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4.95Georgetown University3.220.2%1st Place
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5.63U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.09Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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10.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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13.37Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
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8.16SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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5.8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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15.31Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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9.5George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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8.17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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6.63Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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13.84Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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11.72Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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14.84University of Virginia0.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayne Duff | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 0.6% |
| Jordan Bruce | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.7% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 15.4% | 14.9% | 12.9% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 12.2% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| Lars Osell | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 4.7% | 2.4% |
| Aston Atherton | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 14.3% | 15.5% | 11.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.3% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 12.7% | 17.7% | 37.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| JJ Klempen | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Bridget Green | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 16.7% | 15.7% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 3.2% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 22.1% | 26.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.