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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.92vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.18+6.76vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.83+3.34vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.69+2.58vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.35+2.81vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.51+1.32vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+3.87vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.99-2.40vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.91+0.55vs Predicted
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10Drexel University1.35+1.89vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.22-5.96vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.85+1.69vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.21+1.95vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.70-0.44vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia0.260.00vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23-7.55vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.90-7.26vs Predicted
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18Hampton University1.77-8.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.92St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.76Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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6.34University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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6.58Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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7.81SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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7.32Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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10.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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5.6U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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9.55Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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11.89Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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5.04Georgetown University3.220.2%1st Place
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13.69Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
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14.95Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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13.56Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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15.0University of Virginia0.260.0%1st Place
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8.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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9.74George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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9.94Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 10.4% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Jordan Bruce | 9.1% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Lars Osell | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 1.6% |
| Nathan Smith | 12.3% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 3.9% |
| Mariner Fagan | 15.8% | 12.6% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 12.1% | 14.1% | 15.6% | 15.2% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 13.4% | 16.7% | 32.2% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 18.3% | 14.2% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 21.5% | 29.8% |
| JJ Klempen | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.