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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Princeton University1.08+10.10vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+5.04vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.35+3.29vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.54+1.43vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.39+4.65vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-0.03vs Predicted
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7Washington College0.51+5.98vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.45-2.22vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+1.96vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.69-1.14vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.93-3.16vs Predicted
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12Hampton University0.81+0.24vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.05-5.90vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.93-6.60vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University1.08-4.10vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College0.76-3.74vs Predicted
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17Drexel University0.32-3.30vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia-0.43-2.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.1Princeton University1.080.0%1st Place
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7.04St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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6.29Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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5.43U. S. Naval Academy2.540.1%1st Place
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9.65George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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5.97Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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12.98Washington College0.510.0%1st Place
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5.78Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
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10.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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8.86Webb Institute1.690.1%1st Place
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7.84Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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12.24Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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7.1University of Pennsylvania2.050.1%1st Place
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7.4Old Dominion University1.930.1%1st Place
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10.9Christopher Newport University1.080.0%1st Place
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12.26SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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13.7Drexel University0.320.0%1st Place
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15.52University of Virginia-0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asher Green | 3.1% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 4.2% |
| Madison Bashaw | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jacob Zils | 9.1% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Allgeier | 14.0% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 10.9% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 14.8% | 11.8% |
| Enzo Menditto | 11.3% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 5.8% | 2.8% |
| Payne Donaldson | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| J.J. Smith | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 6.5% |
| Benjamin Honig | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Bendura | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 2.9% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 7.8% |
| Iain Shand | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 16.1% | 17.6% |
| Maxwell Penders | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 18.3% | 43.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.