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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.54+4.71vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.69+6.82vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.35+3.27vs Predicted
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4Hampton University0.81+7.82vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.39+4.69vs Predicted
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6Princeton University1.08+4.95vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.93+0.61vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.05-0.82vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+1.95vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.45-3.98vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.93-3.13vs Predicted
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12Drexel University0.32+1.92vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15-6.25vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.08-3.36vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-9.07vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.51-2.87vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia-0.43-1.31vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.76-5.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.71U. S. Naval Academy2.540.1%1st Place
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8.82Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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6.27Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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11.82Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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9.69George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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10.95Princeton University1.080.0%1st Place
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7.61Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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7.18University of Pennsylvania2.050.1%1st Place
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10.95U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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6.02Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
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7.87Old Dominion University1.930.1%1st Place
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13.92Drexel University0.320.0%1st Place
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6.75St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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10.64Christopher Newport University1.080.0%1st Place
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5.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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13.13Washington College0.510.0%1st Place
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15.69University of Virginia-0.430.0%1st Place
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12.04SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Allgeier | 12.2% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.8% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| Jacob Zils | 9.9% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 6.1% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Asher Green | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 3.6% |
| J.J. Smith | 6.1% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Benjamin Honig | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 3.2% |
| Enzo Menditto | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Iain Shand | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 21.5% | 15.9% |
| Madison Bashaw | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Bendura | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.3% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 10.7% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kennedy Jones | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 14.4% | 12.0% |
| Maxwell Penders | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 16.2% | 46.9% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 5.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.