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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College1.95+1.56vs Predicted
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2University of New Hampshire-0.37+5.27vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.34+0.19vs Predicted
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4Fairfield University-0.66+4.52vs Predicted
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5Middlebury College0.03+1.42vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College1.45-2.65vs Predicted
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7University of New Hampshire-1.41+2.88vs Predicted
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8Williams College-0.90+1.27vs Predicted
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9University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.08+0.53vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire0.10-4.17vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.24-4.78vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire-1.11-2.72vs Predicted
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13Bentley University-1.27-3.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.56Dartmouth College1.9532.6%1st Place
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7.27University of New Hampshire-0.373.6%1st Place
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3.19Brown University1.3422.0%1st Place
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8.52Fairfield University-0.661.8%1st Place
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6.42Middlebury College0.034.0%1st Place
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3.35Dartmouth College1.4518.8%1st Place
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9.88University of New Hampshire-1.411.6%1st Place
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9.27Williams College-0.901.8%1st Place
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9.53University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.081.2%1st Place
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5.83University of New Hampshire0.105.3%1st Place
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6.22University of Vermont0.244.6%1st Place
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9.28University of New Hampshire-1.111.7%1st Place
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9.68Bentley University-1.270.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Hurwitz | 32.6% | 25.4% | 18.1% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Richardsson | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 2.9% |
| Grant Adam | 22.0% | 19.6% | 20.1% | 16.1% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew White | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 7.7% |
| Walter Chiles | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Olivia Drulard | 18.8% | 19.5% | 19.7% | 16.6% | 11.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Devyn Weed | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 13.6% | 17.2% | 22.4% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 12.8% | 16.9% |
| Kai Latham | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 14.4% | 16.2% | 16.3% |
| Sam Harris | 5.3% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Caitlin Derby | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 14.1% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Brendan OBrien | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 15.6% | 14.8% |
| Miguel Sanchez Navarro | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 14.5% | 16.1% | 17.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.