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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+5.22vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.05+5.47vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University1.08+8.27vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.45+1.78vs Predicted
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5Princeton University1.08+5.88vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.54-0.40vs Predicted
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7Hampton University0.81+5.00vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15-1.17vs Predicted
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9Drexel University0.32+4.70vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.69-1.05vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College1.10+0.01vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07-0.57vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.39-3.35vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.35-7.94vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.93-7.30vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University1.93-8.21vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia-0.43-1.22vs Predicted
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18Washington College0.51-5.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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7.47University of Pennsylvania2.050.1%1st Place
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11.27Christopher Newport University1.080.0%1st Place
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5.78Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
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10.88Princeton University1.080.0%1st Place
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5.6U. S. Naval Academy2.540.1%1st Place
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12.0Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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6.83St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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13.7Drexel University0.320.0%1st Place
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8.95Webb Institute1.690.1%1st Place
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11.01SUNY Maritime College1.100.0%1st Place
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11.43U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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9.65George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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6.06Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.7Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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7.79Old Dominion University1.930.1%1st Place
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15.78University of Virginia-0.430.0%1st Place
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12.91Washington College0.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 10.3% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Honig | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Bendura | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 6.6% | 3.6% |
| Enzo Menditto | 12.5% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Asher Green | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 3.9% |
| Henry Allgeier | 11.9% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 6.4% |
| Madison Bashaw | 8.1% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Iain Shand | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 19.8% | 14.8% |
| Payne Donaldson | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 3.8% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 4.6% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 0.9% |
| Jacob Zils | 11.2% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Maxwell Penders | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 14.7% | 50.1% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 15.6% | 10.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.