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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+4.83vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.93+5.46vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.69+5.33vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.05+2.76vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.79+6.35vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.24+3.85vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.46-1.53vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.39+1.16vs Predicted
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9Hampton University0.81+2.38vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.10+0.54vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.35-5.03vs Predicted
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12Drexel University0.32+1.36vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.34-0.19vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University2.45-8.64vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.51-2.60vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia-0.43-0.72vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy2.54-11.64vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-3.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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7.46Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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8.33Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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6.76University of Pennsylvania2.050.1%1st Place
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11.35Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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9.85Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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5.47St. Mary's College of Maryland2.460.1%1st Place
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9.16George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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11.38Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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10.54SUNY Maritime College1.100.0%1st Place
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5.97Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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13.36Drexel University0.320.0%1st Place
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12.81Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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5.36Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
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12.4Washington College0.510.0%1st Place
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15.28University of Virginia-0.430.0%1st Place
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5.36U. S. Naval Academy2.540.1%1st Place
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14.32U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 9.8% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Honig | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 3.7% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Charlie Anderson | 11.6% | 13.3% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.7% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 3.5% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 1.9% |
| Jacob Zils | 10.1% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Iain Shand | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 14.4% | 14.6% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 9.4% |
| Enzo Menditto | 13.2% | 13.1% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kennedy Jones | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 6.8% |
| Maxwell Penders | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 12.8% | 17.6% | 35.3% |
| Henry Allgeier | 13.9% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 9.9% | 13.5% | 18.7% | 21.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.