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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College1.95+1.56vs Predicted
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2Middlebury College0.03+4.41vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont0.24+3.19vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College1.45-0.59vs Predicted
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5University of New Hampshire0.10+0.77vs Predicted
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6University of New Hampshire-1.41+3.86vs Predicted
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7University of New Hampshire-1.11+2.25vs Predicted
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8Williams College-0.90+1.46vs Predicted
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9Fairfield University-0.66-0.55vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.34-6.83vs Predicted
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11University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.08-1.51vs Predicted
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12Bentley University-1.27-2.36vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire-0.37-5.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.56Dartmouth College1.9532.0%1st Place
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6.41Middlebury College0.035.5%1st Place
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6.19University of Vermont0.244.8%1st Place
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3.41Dartmouth College1.4517.7%1st Place
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5.77University of New Hampshire0.105.9%1st Place
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9.86University of New Hampshire-1.410.9%1st Place
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9.25University of New Hampshire-1.112.1%1st Place
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9.46Williams College-0.901.2%1st Place
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8.45Fairfield University-0.662.1%1st Place
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3.17Brown University1.3421.8%1st Place
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9.49University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.081.6%1st Place
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9.64Bentley University-1.271.1%1st Place
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7.34University of New Hampshire-0.373.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Hurwitz | 32.0% | 24.2% | 19.6% | 11.9% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Walter Chiles | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Caitlin Derby | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Olivia Drulard | 17.7% | 20.8% | 18.7% | 15.8% | 11.9% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Harris | 5.9% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 14.1% | 12.7% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Devyn Weed | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 17.3% | 21.1% |
| Brendan OBrien | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 14.3% | 14.8% | 14.2% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 14.8% | 15.8% |
| Andrew White | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 8.1% |
| Grant Adam | 21.8% | 22.1% | 18.1% | 15.0% | 11.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kai Latham | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 15.0% | 15.7% | 17.3% |
| Miguel Sanchez Navarro | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 15.6% | 18.9% |
| Ted Richardsson | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 2.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.