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📊 Prediction Accuracy
69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College1.95+1.58vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.34+1.14vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College1.45+0.32vs Predicted
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4University of New Hampshire0.10+1.95vs Predicted
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5Fairfield University-0.66+3.46vs Predicted
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6Bentley University-1.10+3.51vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont0.24-0.80vs Predicted
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8Middlebury College0.03-1.49vs Predicted
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9University of New Hampshire-0.37-1.71vs Predicted
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10University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.08-0.43vs Predicted
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11Williams College-0.90-1.60vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire-1.11-2.81vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire-1.41-3.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.58Dartmouth College1.9531.3%1st Place
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3.14Brown University1.3421.0%1st Place
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3.32Dartmouth College1.4520.3%1st Place
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5.95University of New Hampshire0.106.0%1st Place
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8.46Fairfield University-0.662.0%1st Place
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9.51Bentley University-1.101.5%1st Place
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6.2University of Vermont0.245.1%1st Place
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6.51Middlebury College0.033.9%1st Place
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7.29University of New Hampshire-0.373.4%1st Place
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9.57University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.081.3%1st Place
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9.4Williams College-0.901.5%1st Place
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9.19University of New Hampshire-1.111.7%1st Place
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9.89University of New Hampshire-1.411.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Hurwitz | 31.3% | 24.7% | 17.8% | 14.0% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Adam | 21.0% | 22.7% | 19.9% | 14.4% | 10.4% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Drulard | 20.3% | 18.8% | 19.2% | 16.1% | 12.3% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Harris | 6.0% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Andrew White | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 7.1% |
| Wilfred Hynes | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 13.6% | 15.4% | 17.3% |
| Caitlin Derby | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Walter Chiles | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Ted Richardsson | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 2.1% |
| Kai Latham | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 14.6% | 18.2% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 14.0% | 15.8% | 15.6% |
| Brendan OBrien | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 13.6% | 14.4% | 14.1% |
| Devyn Weed | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 13.4% | 16.4% | 23.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.