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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.79+1.96vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.47+4.31vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+2.50vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii2.38-0.03vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine-0.66+7.98vs Predicted
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6San Diego State University0.17+4.57vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.52+2.51vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+1.65vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University0.59+0.19vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.66-0.93vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University0.08-0.17vs Predicted
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12California Poly Maritime Academy1.75-6.46vs Predicted
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13University of Washington1.32-6.24vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.07-0.20vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Cruz0.54-5.53vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands0.42-6.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.96Stanford University2.790.3%1st Place
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6.31University of Southern California1.470.1%1st Place
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5.5University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.1%1st Place
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3.97University of Hawaii2.380.2%1st Place
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12.98University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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10.57San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
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9.51University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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9.65Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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9.19Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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9.07University of California at Berkeley0.660.0%1st Place
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10.83Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
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5.54California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.1%1st Place
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6.76University of Washington1.320.1%1st Place
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13.8University of California at San Diego-1.070.0%1st Place
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9.47University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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9.89California State University Channel Islands0.420.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reade Decker | 29.1% | 21.6% | 16.9% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 7.2% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 10.0% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Erik Anderson | 17.8% | 15.6% | 15.7% | 15.2% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 20.0% | 28.0% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 5.8% |
| Daren Sathasivam | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 6.1% | 2.7% |
| Max Case | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% |
| Will Cornell | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 1.3% |
| Nathan Gerber | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 7.9% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 9.7% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Stone | 5.4% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Sean Lipps | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 16.9% | 43.6% |
| Blake Roberts | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 0.8% |
| Sterling Maggard | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 3.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.