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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.29+4.09vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.64+2.04vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.38+5.05vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.33+0.75vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.10+3.75vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.23+2.39vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.81+6.38vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.45-0.46vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.67-2.20vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.72-3.10vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-2.92vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.37-0.19vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University1.31-1.41vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.60-3.55vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College0.73-1.39vs Predicted
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16Olin College of Engineering0.52-1.68vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont1.27-4.94vs Predicted
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18Maine Maritime Academy-0.01-2.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.09Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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4.04Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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8.05Roger Williams University2.380.0%1st Place
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4.75Brown University3.330.2%1st Place
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8.75University of Rhode Island2.100.0%1st Place
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8.39Tufts University2.230.0%1st Place
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13.38U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.810.0%1st Place
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7.54Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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6.8Boston College2.670.1%1st Place
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6.9Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
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8.08Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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11.81Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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11.59Salve Regina University1.310.0%1st Place
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10.45Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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13.61Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
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14.32Olin College of Engineering0.520.0%1st Place
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12.06University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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15.41Maine Maritime Academy-0.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 14.0% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 16.0% | 17.9% | 16.0% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Guthrie Braun | 15.7% | 14.9% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Julian Henderson | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 14.1% | 16.7% | 11.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Peter Joslin | 6.2% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 8.8% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Robert Ulmer | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 8.4% | 4.1% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% |
| Porter Bell | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 16.2% | 12.7% |
| James Jagielski | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 16.5% | 20.4% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 13.0% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 4.9% |
| Isaac Thompson | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 12.1% | 16.2% | 40.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.