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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.64+3.11vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.29+3.07vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.38+5.20vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.33+0.78vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.10+3.96vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.45+1.78vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.23+1.48vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.67-1.14vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University1.31+2.91vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-1.73vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.37+0.83vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.72-4.95vs Predicted
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13Olin College of Engineering0.52+1.34vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.81-0.63vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.27-2.96vs Predicted
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16Maine Maritime Academy-0.01-0.28vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.60-5.88vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College1.50-6.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.11Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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5.07Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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8.2Roger Williams University2.380.0%1st Place
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4.78Brown University3.330.2%1st Place
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8.96University of Rhode Island2.100.0%1st Place
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7.78Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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8.48Tufts University2.230.1%1st Place
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6.86Boston College2.670.1%1st Place
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11.91Salve Regina University1.310.0%1st Place
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8.27Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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11.83Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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7.05Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
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14.34Olin College of Engineering0.520.0%1st Place
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13.37U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.810.0%1st Place
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12.04University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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15.72Maine Maritime Academy-0.010.0%1st Place
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11.12Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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11.1Connecticut College1.500.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 18.5% | 17.0% | 14.5% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephan Baker | 11.0% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 13.5% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Guthrie Braun | 15.3% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Nash | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Sam Bonauto | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Peter Joslin | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 4.5% |
| Robert Ulmer | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 4.2% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| James Jagielski | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 21.2% | 21.2% |
| Julian Henderson | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 14.2% | 16.8% | 12.7% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.0% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 6.0% |
| Isaac Thompson | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 17.2% | 44.8% |
| Porter Bell | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 2.1% |
| Henry Scholz | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.