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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.29+4.15vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.33+2.93vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.23+5.80vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36+3.94vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.64-0.98vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.38+2.06vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.45+0.70vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont1.27+3.99vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.10+0.01vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.72-3.01vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.37+0.85vs Predicted
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12Olin College of Engineering0.52+2.65vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.60-2.31vs Predicted
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14Boston College2.67-7.20vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College1.50-3.77vs Predicted
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16Salve Regina University1.31-4.03vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.81-3.33vs Predicted
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18Maine Maritime Academy-0.01-2.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.15Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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4.93Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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8.8Tufts University2.230.0%1st Place
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7.94Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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4.02Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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8.06Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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7.7Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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11.99University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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9.01University of Rhode Island2.100.0%1st Place
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6.99Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
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11.85Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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14.65Olin College of Engineering0.520.0%1st Place
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10.69Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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6.8Boston College2.670.1%1st Place
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11.23Connecticut College1.500.0%1st Place
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11.97Salve Regina University1.310.0%1st Place
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13.67U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.810.0%1st Place
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15.54Maine Maritime Academy-0.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 12.9% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 12.7% | 12.4% | 14.1% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Robert Ulmer | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Justin Callahan | 20.6% | 18.4% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Sam Bonauto | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 9.0% | 4.9% |
| Tyler Nash | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 8.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 3.6% |
| James Jagielski | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 19.4% | 25.4% |
| Porter Bell | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 1.9% |
| Peter Joslin | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Henry Scholz | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 3.6% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 5.1% |
| Julian Henderson | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 16.5% | 16.3% | 13.1% |
| Isaac Thompson | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 11.2% | 18.5% | 41.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.