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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.64+2.88vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.45+5.58vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.33+1.68vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.38+3.57vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.37+6.21vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.72+0.52vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.77-0.71vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.10+0.54vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University1.31+2.52vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont1.27+1.86vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.60-0.35vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73-1.62vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.73+0.27vs Predicted
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14Maine Maritime Academy0.06+0.98vs Predicted
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15Tufts University2.23-6.90vs Predicted
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16Boston College2.67-9.29vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-6.35vs Predicted
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18Olin College of Engineering-0.82-1.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.88Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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7.58Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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4.68Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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7.57Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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11.21Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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6.52Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
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6.29Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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8.54University of Rhode Island2.100.0%1st Place
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11.52Salve Regina University1.310.0%1st Place
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11.86University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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10.65Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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10.38Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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13.27Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
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14.98Maine Maritime Academy0.060.0%1st Place
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8.1Tufts University2.230.1%1st Place
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6.71Boston College2.670.1%1st Place
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10.65U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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16.61Olin College of Engineering-0.820.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 21.0% | 18.3% | 14.1% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 14.2% | 13.6% | 13.4% | 13.2% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 1.5% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 1.7% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 8.6% | 2.4% |
| Porter Bell | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 1.7% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 2.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 12.3% | 18.4% | 16.2% | 6.8% |
| Nathan Hyde | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 28.0% | 22.1% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Peter Joslin | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 1.4% |
| Rohan Shah | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 6.0% | 16.8% | 61.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.