Race 5A

women-new-england-fleet-race

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

28.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Caroline Sibilly 13.2% 14.7% 13.8% 10.4% 10.2% 8.4% 6.8% 6.2% 5.6% 3.8% 3.2% 1.8% 1.2% 0.7%
Emily Bornarth 10.9% 10.6% 10.0% 8.5% 8.6% 8.8% 8.5% 9.4% 5.9% 6.8% 5.5% 3.6% 1.9% 1.0%
Carmen Cowles 13.0% 13.8% 11.7% 10.0% 10.2% 8.0% 8.2% 7.4% 5.7% 4.0% 4.3% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3%
Brooke Schmelz 6.1% 7.1% 7.3% 7.9% 7.9% 8.0% 8.0% 8.3% 7.7% 8.1% 8.3% 7.2% 5.4% 2.7%
Taylor Eastman 5.3% 6.7% 5.9% 8.5% 7.1% 7.9% 7.9% 8.1% 7.5% 8.5% 8.4% 8.0% 6.5% 3.7%
Brielle Willoughby 10.2% 6.9% 10.3% 9.4% 10.2% 8.3% 7.4% 8.1% 8.5% 4.8% 7.7% 4.1% 2.9% 1.2%
Kyra Phelan 4.4% 4.5% 5.1% 5.1% 4.3% 5.3% 5.2% 5.8% 8.6% 8.9% 10.1% 8.5% 12.5% 11.7%
Tiare Sierra 4.0% 3.9% 4.1% 4.6% 4.4% 5.7% 5.2% 4.9% 7.0% 7.5% 9.5% 10.9% 12.4% 15.9%
Haley Andreasen 3.4% 3.2% 2.5% 3.2% 4.2% 3.7% 4.2% 5.7% 7.3% 8.4% 9.2% 11.7% 15.1% 18.2%
Lucy Meagher 6.5% 5.8% 5.7% 6.3% 9.3% 7.4% 8.5% 7.6% 7.8% 9.7% 7.7% 8.8% 6.2% 2.7%
Cordelia Burn 10.4% 8.4% 9.3% 10.5% 7.3% 10.2% 8.6% 7.7% 7.0% 6.4% 5.3% 4.0% 3.4% 1.5%
Eva Ermlich 5.5% 5.9% 6.7% 7.5% 8.2% 7.3% 8.2% 7.9% 8.9% 8.4% 7.0% 8.1% 6.0% 4.4%
Kytalin Hendrickson 4.8% 6.9% 5.3% 5.6% 5.5% 6.7% 8.7% 8.4% 7.6% 8.4% 8.1% 9.7% 8.6% 5.7%
Izzy Wu-Karr 2.3% 1.6% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 4.3% 4.6% 4.5% 4.9% 6.3% 5.7% 11.1% 17.0% 30.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.