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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45+4.85vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.06+5.06vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.75+1.95vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College1.49+5.13vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.47+1.01vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12+1.03vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.82-2.21vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.07-0.78vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.03-1.76vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.73-1.57vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.02-0.30vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.92-0.81vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island1.84-4.78vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.44-4.71vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.08-2.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.85U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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7.06Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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4.95Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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9.13Bowdoin College1.490.0%1st Place
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6.01Harvard University2.470.1%1st Place
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7.03Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.1%1st Place
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4.79Boston College2.820.2%1st Place
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7.22Dartmouth College2.070.1%1st Place
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7.24Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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8.43Brown University1.730.0%1st Place
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10.7Tufts University1.020.0%1st Place
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11.19Connecticut College0.920.0%1st Place
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8.22University of Rhode Island1.840.0%1st Place
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9.29Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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12.9University of Vermont0.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Bornarth | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Lucy Meagher | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Carmen Cowles | 14.3% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Phelan | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 5.3% |
| Cordelia Burn | 9.8% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 15.7% | 12.5% | 14.0% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Taylor Eastman | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Eva Ermlich | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 3.1% |
| Samantha Jensen | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 16.0% | 15.5% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 14.9% | 20.1% | 15.7% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 2.8% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 4.6% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 16.4% | 48.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.