Race 5B

women-new-england-fleet-race

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Katharine Doble 11.2% 11.7% 9.9% 10.0% 9.9% 10.2% 9.9% 7.7% 5.1% 5.3% 4.3% 2.3% 1.2% 1.0% 0.3%
Michaela O'Brien 20.5% 18.9% 14.4% 13.2% 9.1% 8.2% 5.4% 3.8% 3.1% 1.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Tavia Smith 5.9% 3.5% 6.4% 5.8% 8.1% 6.2% 7.2% 9.1% 7.4% 9.9% 10.5% 7.2% 7.2% 3.5% 2.1%
Sarah Young 13.8% 14.3% 12.3% 9.5% 11.1% 10.4% 7.7% 7.1% 6.4% 3.3% 1.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Lucy Paskoff 2.4% 2.6% 2.4% 2.9% 3.2% 4.2% 4.7% 5.3% 6.0% 6.6% 6.7% 11.1% 13.8% 13.2% 14.9%
Lauren Russler 7.6% 9.8% 9.5% 10.4% 9.6% 9.6% 9.6% 7.9% 8.5% 6.1% 4.7% 3.7% 1.9% 1.1% 0.0%
Lucia Loosbrock 6.1% 4.2% 5.0% 6.0% 6.0% 8.0% 7.7% 9.4% 9.6% 8.4% 8.0% 8.7% 6.4% 4.3% 2.2%
Katie Coughlin 2.4% 2.1% 2.7% 3.0% 3.2% 4.3% 4.7% 6.0% 5.1% 6.4% 9.1% 10.2% 11.8% 15.4% 13.6%
Julia Conneely 4.4% 5.7% 5.7% 6.8% 7.4% 8.8% 7.8% 9.7% 9.1% 7.9% 9.4% 7.3% 5.4% 3.7% 0.9%
Zoey Ziskind 12.7% 12.4% 14.1% 12.7% 10.2% 9.2% 8.5% 6.0% 5.8% 3.0% 3.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Maisie MacGillivray 2.4% 1.8% 2.9% 3.9% 4.6% 3.8% 4.3% 4.7% 8.1% 9.2% 8.9% 9.2% 12.3% 11.3% 12.6%
Ximena Escobar 5.1% 5.9% 7.2% 8.3% 7.2% 7.5% 10.1% 7.1% 8.7% 10.7% 7.7% 7.2% 4.0% 2.2% 1.1%
Emma Wang 2.4% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 4.1% 4.3% 4.5% 6.9% 6.8% 8.6% 8.9% 11.3% 11.8% 11.7% 8.7%
Caitlin Derby 1.7% 1.7% 2.2% 2.5% 3.6% 2.9% 4.5% 5.2% 6.1% 6.3% 8.2% 9.4% 13.2% 15.3% 17.2%
Lilly Saffer 1.4% 1.9% 2.1% 1.7% 2.7% 2.4% 3.4% 4.1% 4.2% 6.6% 8.1% 8.7% 9.8% 16.5% 26.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.