← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
12.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Vermont1.13+3.13vs Predicted
-
2Dartmouth College0.60+3.69vs Predicted
-
3University of Massachusetts at Amherst0.08+4.39vs Predicted
-
4University of New Hampshire0.35+2.71vs Predicted
-
5University of New Hampshire-0.95+6.03vs Predicted
-
6University of Connecticut-0.62+3.90vs Predicted
-
7Middlebury College-0.52+2.58vs Predicted
-
8Amherst College-0.09-0.10vs Predicted
-
9Brown University0.78-3.86vs Predicted
-
10University of Vermont0.83-4.90vs Predicted
-
11Williams College-0.60-1.20vs Predicted
-
12Boston University0.16-4.84vs Predicted
-
13University of New Hampshire-0.82-2.50vs Predicted
-
14University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.91-3.32vs Predicted
-
15University of New Hampshire-1.36-2.70vs Predicted
-
16Amherst College-1.61-3.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.13University of Vermont1.130.2%1st Place
-
5.69Dartmouth College0.600.1%1st Place
-
7.39University of Massachusetts at Amherst0.080.1%1st Place
-
6.71University of New Hampshire0.350.1%1st Place
-
11.03University of New Hampshire-0.950.0%1st Place
-
9.9University of Connecticut-0.620.0%1st Place
-
9.58Middlebury College-0.520.0%1st Place
-
7.9Amherst College-0.090.0%1st Place
-
5.14Brown University0.780.1%1st Place
-
5.1University of Vermont0.830.1%1st Place
-
9.8Williams College-0.600.0%1st Place
-
7.16Boston University0.160.1%1st Place
-
10.5University of New Hampshire-0.820.0%1st Place
-
10.68University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.910.0%1st Place
-
12.3University of New Hampshire-1.360.0%1st Place
-
13.0Amherst College-1.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Smith | 18.7% | 16.4% | 15.2% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Hurwitz | 11.3% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| William Delong | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Sam Harris | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Brendan OBrien | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 10.0% |
| Ryan Treat | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 5.2% |
| Grace Augspurger | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 4.0% |
| Nat Edmonds | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Charles Case | 13.5% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 11.7% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 4.5% |
| Richard Kalich | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Henry Poynter | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% |
| Ian McCaffrey | 3.0% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 10.1% |
| Devyn Weed | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 17.9% | 22.4% |
| Adrian Whitney | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 16.8% | 32.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.