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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont1.13+3.12vs Predicted
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2University of New Hampshire0.35+4.51vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont0.83+2.01vs Predicted
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4Brown University0.78+1.29vs Predicted
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5University of Connecticut-0.62+4.96vs Predicted
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6Boston University0.16+1.23vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College0.60-1.15vs Predicted
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8Middlebury College-0.52+1.36vs Predicted
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9University of Massachusetts at Amherst0.08-1.61vs Predicted
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10Williams College-0.60-0.12vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire-0.82-0.47vs Predicted
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12Amherst College-0.09-4.04vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire-1.36-0.85vs Predicted
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14Amherst College-1.61-1.21vs Predicted
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15University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.91-4.08vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire-0.95-4.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.12University of Vermont1.130.2%1st Place
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6.51University of New Hampshire0.350.1%1st Place
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5.01University of Vermont0.830.1%1st Place
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5.29Brown University0.780.1%1st Place
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9.96University of Connecticut-0.620.0%1st Place
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7.23Boston University0.160.1%1st Place
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5.85Dartmouth College0.600.1%1st Place
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9.36Middlebury College-0.520.0%1st Place
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7.39University of Massachusetts at Amherst0.080.1%1st Place
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9.88Williams College-0.600.0%1st Place
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10.53University of New Hampshire-0.820.0%1st Place
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7.96Amherst College-0.090.1%1st Place
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12.15University of New Hampshire-1.360.0%1st Place
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12.79Amherst College-1.610.0%1st Place
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10.92University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.910.0%1st Place
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11.04University of New Hampshire-0.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Smith | 19.3% | 15.4% | 16.5% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Harris | 7.5% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 13.8% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Charles Case | 11.8% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Treat | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 5.0% |
| Richard Kalich | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Ava Hurwitz | 10.8% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Grace Augspurger | 3.1% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 2.8% |
| William Delong | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 4.6% |
| Henry Poynter | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 8.6% |
| Nat Edmonds | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 2.0% |
| Devyn Weed | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 13.3% | 15.5% | 21.7% |
| Adrian Whitney | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 15.0% | 31.8% |
| Ian McCaffrey | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 10.0% |
| Brendan OBrien | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 11.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.