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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont0.83+3.96vs Predicted
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2University of Massachusetts at Amherst0.08+5.37vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont1.13+1.20vs Predicted
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4University of New Hampshire0.35+2.66vs Predicted
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5Brown University0.78+0.19vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College0.60-0.18vs Predicted
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7Boston University0.16+0.26vs Predicted
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8Williams College-0.60+1.68vs Predicted
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9University of Connecticut-0.62+0.78vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire-1.36+2.31vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire-0.95-0.10vs Predicted
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12Amherst College-0.09-3.96vs Predicted
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13University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.91-2.19vs Predicted
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14Middlebury College-0.52-4.62vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-0.82-4.34vs Predicted
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16Amherst College-1.61-3.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.96University of Vermont0.830.1%1st Place
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7.37University of Massachusetts at Amherst0.080.1%1st Place
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4.2University of Vermont1.130.2%1st Place
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6.66University of New Hampshire0.350.1%1st Place
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5.19Brown University0.780.1%1st Place
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5.82Dartmouth College0.600.1%1st Place
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7.26Boston University0.160.1%1st Place
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9.68Williams College-0.600.0%1st Place
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9.78University of Connecticut-0.620.0%1st Place
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12.31University of New Hampshire-1.360.0%1st Place
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10.9University of New Hampshire-0.950.0%1st Place
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8.04Amherst College-0.090.1%1st Place
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10.81University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.910.0%1st Place
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9.38Middlebury College-0.520.0%1st Place
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10.66University of New Hampshire-0.820.0%1st Place
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12.98Amherst College-1.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Sanborn | 13.8% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| William Delong | 5.3% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Cooper Smith | 19.1% | 14.0% | 15.5% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Harris | 7.0% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Charles Case | 12.5% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ava Hurwitz | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Richard Kalich | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 4.0% |
| Ryan Treat | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 5.0% |
| Devyn Weed | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 18.0% | 22.1% |
| Brendan OBrien | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 9.8% |
| Nat Edmonds | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| Ian McCaffrey | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 10.0% |
| Grace Augspurger | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.0% |
| Henry Poynter | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 8.2% |
| Adrian Whitney | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 16.9% | 33.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.