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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.47+4.54vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College1.59+7.05vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.95+4.69vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont1.32+6.26vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59+3.94vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+3.39vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.93+0.72vs Predicted
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8Florida State University0.97+3.37vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.54+0.59vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99-2.65vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.92+0.88vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.01-4.55vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.39-2.88vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.69-5.13vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.81-6.79vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University1.79-7.64vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College1.10-5.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.54University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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9.05Connecticut College1.590.1%1st Place
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7.69St. Mary's College of Maryland1.950.1%1st Place
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10.26University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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8.94U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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9.39U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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7.72Tufts University1.930.1%1st Place
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11.37Florida State University0.970.0%1st Place
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9.59Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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7.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
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11.88Connecticut College0.920.0%1st Place
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7.45Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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10.12George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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8.87Boston University1.690.1%1st Place
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8.21Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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8.36Northeastern University1.790.1%1st Place
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11.2SUNY Maritime College1.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson McAliley | 14.4% | 12.9% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Skylor Sweet | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.1% |
| Jonathan Weed | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.9% |
| Peter McGonagle | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% |
| Lars Osell | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 3.6% |
| Clark Morris | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% |
| Katie Nelson | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 18.1% |
| Everett Botwinick | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 4.1% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.3% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 20.4% |
| Lucas Thress | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% |
| Noah Robitshek | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 2.8% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% |
| Everett Nash | 5.7% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.5% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 12.0% | 14.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.