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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.47+4.52vs Predicted
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2Boston University1.69+6.64vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.95+4.70vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59+5.18vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.54+4.12vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.01+1.57vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+2.21vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.81+0.06vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.79-0.48vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College1.59-1.06vs Predicted
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11Florida State University0.97+0.71vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.93-4.20vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99-5.43vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont1.32-3.60vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College1.10-3.88vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College0.92-4.12vs Predicted
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18George Washington University1.39-7.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.52University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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8.64Boston University1.690.1%1st Place
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7.7St. Mary's College of Maryland1.950.1%1st Place
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9.18U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.1%1st Place
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9.12Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
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7.57Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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9.21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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8.06Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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8.52Northeastern University1.790.1%1st Place
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8.94Connecticut College1.590.0%1st Place
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11.71Florida State University0.970.0%1st Place
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7.8Tufts University1.930.1%1st Place
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7.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
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10.4University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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11.12SUNY Maritime College1.100.0%1st Place
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11.88Connecticut College0.920.0%1st Place
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10.06George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson McAliley | 14.8% | 13.5% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Noah Robitshek | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Jonathan Weed | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.7% |
| Peter McGonagle | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% |
| Everett Botwinick | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% |
| Lucas Thress | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| Lars Osell | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.1% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 2.1% |
| Everett Nash | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.8% |
| Skylor Sweet | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% |
| Katie Nelson | 3.5% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 18.2% |
| Clark Morris | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 12.6% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 19.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.