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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.93+6.55vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+7.09vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.47+2.68vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College1.59+5.17vs Predicted
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5Boston University1.69+3.53vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.39+4.15vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.79+1.30vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.01-0.68vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland1.95-1.12vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.81-1.92vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.54-1.49vs Predicted
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12Florida State University0.97-0.44vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.32-2.57vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College0.92-2.06vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99-7.51vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.10-4.88vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-7.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.55Tufts University1.930.1%1st Place
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9.09U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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5.68University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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9.17Connecticut College1.590.1%1st Place
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8.53Boston University1.690.1%1st Place
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10.15George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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8.3Northeastern University1.790.1%1st Place
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7.32Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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7.88St. Mary's College of Maryland1.950.1%1st Place
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8.08Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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9.51Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
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11.56Florida State University0.970.0%1st Place
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10.43University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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11.94Connecticut College0.920.0%1st Place
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7.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.1%1st Place
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11.12SUNY Maritime College1.100.0%1st Place
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9.2U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clark Morris | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Lars Osell | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 3.6% |
| Jackson McAliley | 13.6% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Skylor Sweet | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% |
| Noah Robitshek | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% |
| Everett Nash | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 9.2% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Jonathan Weed | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.6% |
| Everett Botwinick | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.2% |
| Katie Nelson | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 13.0% | 16.3% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 9.5% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 20.0% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 13.5% |
| Peter McGonagle | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.