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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+4.55vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University2.12+4.23vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College1.45+5.90vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+6.15vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.69+2.71vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.69+1.74vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.22+2.56vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.44+0.62vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont1.27+0.39vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45-1.04vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.30-1.52vs Predicted
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12Florida State University0.60+0.38vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania1.61-5.09vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.76-2.86vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93-8.26vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College0.36-2.93vs Predicted
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17Fordham University0.81-5.61vs Predicted
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18Princeton University-0.87-1.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.55St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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6.23Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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8.9Connecticut College1.450.1%1st Place
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10.15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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7.71Tufts University1.690.1%1st Place
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7.74Webb Institute1.690.1%1st Place
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9.56George Washington University1.220.0%1st Place
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8.62Boston University1.440.1%1st Place
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9.39University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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8.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
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9.48Cornell University1.300.1%1st Place
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12.38Florida State University0.600.0%1st Place
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7.91University of Pennsylvania1.610.1%1st Place
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11.14SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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6.74U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.1%1st Place
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13.07Connecticut College0.360.0%1st Place
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11.39Fordham University0.810.0%1st Place
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16.09Princeton University-0.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Jensen | 12.9% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Will Priebe | 8.9% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Craine | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 2.8% |
| Gus Macaulay | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Payne Donaldson | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
| Tiare Sierra | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Christian Cushman | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 0.9% |
| Thomas Walker | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| Pilar Cundey | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Brady Parks | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 16.7% | 8.2% |
| John Majernik | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Ben Hosford | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 4.6% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Lilly Saffer | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 18.2% | 12.3% |
| James Owen | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 4.2% |
| Nicholas Lorenzen | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 12.2% | 60.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.