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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93+6.04vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University2.12+4.23vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.69+4.96vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.30+5.19vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+0.31vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.61+2.05vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+3.26vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College1.45+0.55vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.44-0.37vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.22-0.04vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45-2.19vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.69-3.98vs Predicted
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13Fordham University0.81-1.88vs Predicted
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14Florida State University0.60-2.24vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College0.76-3.52vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont1.27-6.56vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College0.36-3.93vs Predicted
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18Princeton University-0.87-1.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.04U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.1%1st Place
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6.23Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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7.96Webb Institute1.690.1%1st Place
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9.19Cornell University1.300.0%1st Place
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5.31St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.2%1st Place
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8.05University of Pennsylvania1.610.1%1st Place
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10.26U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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8.55Connecticut College1.450.1%1st Place
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8.63Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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9.96George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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8.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
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8.02Tufts University1.690.1%1st Place
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11.12Fordham University0.810.0%1st Place
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11.76Florida State University0.600.0%1st Place
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11.48SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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9.44University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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13.07Connecticut College0.360.0%1st Place
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16.1Princeton University-0.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Whiteway | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Will Priebe | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Pilar Cundey | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.0% |
| Nathan Jensen | 15.4% | 13.7% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| John Majernik | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Reed McAllister | 4.0% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 2.2% |
| Duncan Craine | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Tiare Sierra | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 1.4% |
| Thomas Walker | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Gus Macaulay | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| James Owen | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 4.9% |
| Brady Parks | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 7.0% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 4.6% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Lilly Saffer | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 19.2% | 12.1% |
| Nicholas Lorenzen | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 7.5% | 12.6% | 59.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.